The Trump administration is weighing an easing of sanctions on "shadow fleet" tankers to bring down freight rates, but Drewry calculates the move would deliver container shippers only limited relief from the fuel surcharges they have paid for months.

Under the proposal reported by Reuters on Wednesday, companies would apply to the Treasury Department for authorization to use sanctioned vessels for "legal oil." Energy Secretary Chris Wright raised the idea in a video message to the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh.

The commercial question for apparel and retail supply chains is whether releasing sanctioned tonnage can pull down the bunker costs that ocean carriers have passed through to shippers since the war in Iran began in late February. Drewry's answer: not much.

What does lifting tanker sanctions actually unlock?

Philip Damas, managing director and head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, drew a sharp line between tonnage supply and oil supply. Removing the tanker sanctions "will not have a major impact on oil prices, as this would not improve oil supply unless the sanctions on these countries' oil exports were also removed," he said.

Because the sanctions move would likely have only a reduced effect on oil prices, Drewry also expects that the impact on fuel surcharges "will likely be limited," Damas said.

There is one channel of relief. "Freight costs might decline from current historic highs due to improved availability of tonnage," Damas said, noting that roughly 16 percent of crude tanker tonnage is under U.S. sanctions and could rejoin the mainstream fleet if designations are lifted.

He quantified the stakes on a single route: moving a barrel from West Africa to China cost about $4 in 2025, then $7.30 before the war, $21 in September and $37 on Wednesday. A significant improvement in tonnage supply from sanctions relief could cut that route's freight cost by $15 to $20 a barrel — roughly half the current level.

How big is the shadow fleet now?

The fleet keeps growing. Kpler Risk & Compliance data published by ship tracking intelligence provider MarineTraffic on Thursday put the shadow fleet at 3,234 vessels in September, a 12-month high. Of the 62 vessels newly classified that month, 26 were flagged for dark activity, AIS spoofing or false flags.

Energy Aspects, in a note on the proposal, was skeptical of any freight relief at all. The consultancy said easing sanctions would not greatly affect freight rates because most of the sanctioned tankers have been actively trading anyway. A small number of vessels could add capacity for shuttle runs through the Strait of Hormuz, but ship insurers would still be bound by European and British regulations, capping what any American move could deliver.

What are shippers paying right now?

Carriers have continued to pass on the fuel burden. Maersk raised its emergency fuel surcharge to 20 percent effective Monday, citing soaring energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict, Reuters reported. CMA CGM revised its own emergency fuel surcharge effective Oct. 1 to $265 per 20-foot container on head hauls, per a company advisory.

Drewry's World Container Index, covering eight major trade lanes, sat at $4,485 per 40-foot container as of Thursday. That is up more than 136 percent from the $1,899 composite calculated on Feb. 26, and the index has held above $4,000 per box since the last week of June — a sustained cost base that sourcing managers have had to absorb across peak season.

Thursday's reading rose 3 percent from the week prior, rebounding after three straight weekly declines. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates increased 3 percent to $7,884 per 40-foot container. Shanghai-to-New York rates fell 1 percent to $10,075.

Container shipping has largely bypassed the Strait of Hormuz — the conduit for roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and natural gas supply before the war — throughout the nearly eight-month conflict, extending routings and transit times even as escalation in oil prices drove the rate spike.

What happens next?

Damas noted that oil futures are pricing only a small easing of crude prices over the next few months. Brent crude futures inched up to around $106 at noon Thursday, testing October's highs as markets focused on mounting supply risks in the Middle East.

The talks come days after President Donald Trump temporarily eased sanctions on Russian diesel fuel, a move met with criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, several European countries and many U.S. lawmakers. According to Reuters, the Energy Department said any move to relieve sanctions on the shadow fleet would not help Russia move oil or oil products.

Until tanker designations are formally lifted — and European and British insurance rules change with them — apparel importers should treat current surcharge levels as the planning baseline.

By Elena Vasquez