Weekly container transits through the Suez Canal reached roughly 753,000 TEUs in the first two weeks of October — past half the pre-disruption level of 1.457 million TEUs recorded in the same period of 2023, according to Clarksons Research. The figure marks the first time traffic has crossed that threshold since Houthi attacks began forcing diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.

The recovery is steep. At the trough, from February 2024 through mid-2026, weekly transits averaged just 141,000 TEUs, or 11 percent of 2023 levels. Clarksons counts 36 percent of container capacity routed via the canal or the Cape now traversing Suez, up from 8 percent between 2024 and mid-2026, though still below the pre-attack 80 percent share.

Linerlytica data confirms the shift. Roughly 29.5 container ships over 4,000 TEUs transited the Suez and Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Aug. 31 and Sept. 27. That number rose to 45 vessels in the week of Oct. 5-11, with roughly 47 projected for this week. The firm expects transits to breach 50 per week soon, and estimates more than 140 ships totaling over 2 million TEUs of capacity have switched away from Cape routing since May.

Who is returning, and when?

Suez Canal Authority chairman Ossama Rabiee said 166 medium and mega container vessels used the canal between July and September 2026, totaling 29 million net tons, against 16 vessels and 2.4 million tons a year earlier. Sixteen services have announced Suez returns since early July, according to shipping association BIMCO, spanning all three major vessel-sharing alliances — Gemini, Ocean and Premier — plus MSC.

This week the Premier Alliance of ONE, HMM and Yang Ming added its FE1 Asia-North Europe service to the Suez slate, the coalition's first Red Sea return since diversions began. Linerlytica expects a full-scale return within the first quarter of 2027; Drewry projects a phased return reaching 80 percent of pre-diversion levels by February.

What does the rush ignore?

Drewry argues economics alone cannot explain the pace. Freight rates on Asia-Europe have declined for 13 consecutive weeks, and the advisory cited the quicker-than-expected Suez resumption as the biggest risk to carriers' rate recovery, since shorter transits effectively add capacity to the trade lane.

The numbers sit on a knife edge. Drewry's September 2026 comparison puts the Suez saving at roughly $1 million per round voyage, or $43 per slot, for 24,000-TEU ships on Asia-North Europe — before war-risk insurance and canal discounts. On a $225 million hull, a one-way war-risk premium of 0.3 percent adds $1.35 million per round voyage, enough to tip the advantage back to the Cape. A 1 percent premium would add $4.5 million and likely dictate Cape routing.

"The critical question is therefore not whether Suez is cheaper than the Cape on a single round voyage," said Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry, in a Sept. 30 forecast. "It is whether the annual value of recovered vessel capacity, shorter transit times, improved schedule economics and competitive positioning exceeds the expected cost of a security disruption."

Heaney described the industry's behavior as a series of controlled experiments retaining contingency plans, not conviction that the Red Sea is safe. "The fundamental threat that caused carriers to abandon the Red Sea in the first place has not disappeared," he said, noting the Houthis have strengthened their position along Yemen's Red Sea coast.

How real is the risk?

The regional conflict escalated sharply over the weekend. A Houthi ballistic missile struck the passenger terminal of Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Saturday, killing 13 and wounding more than 300, with a second projectile hitting the airport the next day. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree also claimed strikes on Dammam's airport and two Aramco facilities, and warned international companies and travelers against using Saudi airports and airspace — a warning with direct routing implications for air cargo.

Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, wrote on LinkedIn Monday that the Houthis "have now demonstrated their ability to hit targets on the opposite side of Saudi Arabia" and that the attacks illustrate a risk "not sure is fully taken into account by the supply chain stakeholders." He added: "The Houthis could shut down container traffic via the Red Sea and cause a reversal to round-Africa at any time of their choosing."

War-risk premiums for Bab el-Mandeb transits have held at roughly 3 percent since early September, according to Reuters. Joint War Committee chairman Andrew Moulton told the CSN Maritime Forum in London that the Houthis have told several shipowners "you are not on our target list," but questioned how precisely the group can target vessels, especially when AIS is switched off. Sourcing teams routing Asia-Europe freight through Suez in the first quarter of 2027 should keep Cape contingencies — and premium scenarios — in their plans.